May 12, 2021: The year is almost midway and so has come the possibility of the first cyclone of 2021 in the Indian Ocean.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday issued a forecast indicating the possible development of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea around May 16.
First cyclone of 2021 in the North Indian Ocean region
IMD said, if realised, this will be the first cyclonic storm of 2021 to form in the North Indian Ocean region. May ocean conditions are rife for cyclogenesis in this region. The current location of the Madden Julian Oscillation is in favour of causing enhanced rainfall over the Arabian Sea, expected to last for a week.
“A low-pressure area is very likely to form over the southeast Arabian Sea on the morning of May 14. It is likely to move north-northwest wards across this region adjoining Lakshadweep. It may intensify into a cyclonic storm around May 16 and continue to move north-northwestwards,” stated the latest press statement issued by the IMD on Tuesday.
“There is a lot of variation among models. Some models are showing it’s likely to cross the Oman coast, some indicate south Pakistan which would also mean parts of Gujarat will be affected,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge, cyclones at India Meteorological Department.
This will be the first cyclone of this year and will be called Tauktae meaning gecko (named by Myanmar) when formed. There is a chance that the cyclone may cross the north Gujarat or Kutch area on May 20.
First cyclone of 2021: IMD issues warning
The Met department has issued a warning of light to moderate rainfall over Lakshadweep, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu from Thursday onwards, lasting till May 16.
The rainfall will mainly be associated with the likely formation of a low-pressure system and its intensification.
“We can indicate landfall only once the low-pressure area forms. The message now is mainly to ensure fishermen on the west coast come back by May 14 because the sea will be rough. We are expecting severe weather and heavy rainfall around Lakshadweep, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, ghat areas of Tamil Nadu and parts of Maharashtra following the formation of low-pressure areas,” added Devi.
Rough sea conditions are expected to develop starting Thursday, in view of which fishermen from these coastal states have been warned against venturing into the sea from Friday. Those out in the sea have been urged to return to safety by Wednesday night.
First cyclone of the year along the west coast of India
Sea conditions, mainly along the Comorin area and the east-central Arabian Sea, will be very rough to high between May 14 and 16. A similar rough sea is also expected along the coasts of Goa and Maharashtra on May 15.
Squally winds with speeds ranging between 40 to 50 km/hour and gusting to 60 km/hour will lash Lakshadweep and Maldives areas Thursday onwards. Coasts off Kerala, Goa, Karnataka and Maharashtra will also experience similar gale wind till Sunday, the Met department has warned. Lakshadweep could experience a tidal wave of about 1m above the astronomical tide during the weekend, with the possibility of inundating low-lying areas, said the IMD.